Kulova Margarita, R. , Gabaraeva, Marina R. , Gadieva, Aneta N.
Kavkaz Forum. 2021. Issue 8.

Abstract:
The problem of unemployment in a labor-surplus region largely affects the
social risks and determines the social stability of the territory. The purpose of this
study is to identify the main trends in the dynamics of the unemployment rate
in the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District in 2020-2021 and to assess
social risks in this context. For the purposes of the research methods of statistical
data analysis and content analysis of Internet media were applied using the
QDAMiner program from Provalis Research.
The results of the socio-statistical analysis of unemployment in the regions of
the North Caucasus Federal District allow us to draw the following conclusions.
News publications on the topic of unemployment in the macroregion and
lively discussions are observed mainly in Telegram channels and are less common
in other social networks, Instagram, etc.
The opinions of the authors of Telegram channels and bloggers about the
inefficiency of programs for the development of the NCFD regions that do not
contribute to the creation of new jobs correlate with low official estimates of the
effectiveness of such programs.
There is an obvious connection between the complexity of the situation on
the labor market and employment in the region and the intensity of criticism
by the authors of Telegram channels of regional authorities. At the same time,
in the Stavropol Territory, where the unemployment rate is close to the Russian
average, and there are no sharp fluctuations in its level, there is a small number of
publications with news on unemployment and their heated discussion.
One of the obvious trends in the dynamics of the unemployment rate in 2020-
2021 in the macro-region was that, against the background of low fluctuations in
unemployment (1-2%) on average in Russia in the subjects of the North Caucasus
Federal District, the delta of the indicators of total unemployment in some cases
reached 10%, which clearly reflects the instability of the economy of the NCFD
regions and the accompanying social risks. Distrust of the authorities and doubt
in their ability to really solve the problem leads to despair, when, according to the
authors, everyone is left alone with the question of finding a job, which, among
other things, leads to an increase in social tension.

Keywords: unemployment, region, content analysis, statistical analysis, North Caucasus

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